Strokes gained/approach is also incredibly valuableagain, only six other courses were more correlated to success. How about two idiots talking PGA Tour, golf betting, and everything in-between? Si Woo Kim, fresh off his Sony Open victory last week, also will compete, alongside the likes of Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris and Tom Kim. Reunion Resort & Golf Club 7. His last eight starts have all been T-13 or better with five top-five finishes. Mayo is on the board of governors at www.fantasynational.com. His iron play has been downright putrid, and Im not sure he can sustain gaining six strokes on the greens like he has the last two starts. Golf course Bay Hill Club and Lodge | Par 72 | 7,466 yards Course comparisons (according to Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,100 DraftKings | $8,900 FanDuel). (Photo by Katharine Lotze/Getty Images). Oh, and a lot of laughs along the way. Stop Guessing and Start Winning! Caddie: Brendon Todd (+100) over Seamus Power (Bet365) Todd, a former winner here, has been playing some spectacular golf this Fall. He has two top-five finishes in his past four trips to this event. Jon Rahm Now Heavy Favorite at Arnold Palmer Invitational After Strong First Round, Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Bettor in For Wild Pay Day if Scottie Scheffler Repeats, Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Odds & Trends: Bettors Loving Will Zalatoris, 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Longshot Bets: Keith Mitchell Scorching Hot, 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Picks: It May Be Collin Morikawa Time. section: | slug: arnold-palmer-invitational-2023-props-odds-field-expert-head-to-head-golf-matchup-picks-pga-best-bets | sport: golf | route: article_single.us | He also ranked second in birdie average (4.6 per round) and fourth in scoring average (69.3). What 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop bets should you target? Gdula: Tony Finau (-118) over Aaron Wise (FanDuel) Finau is by far the best in the field over the past 20 rounds, and even using past-year data with recency adjustments, my head-to-head model thinks Finau should be around -135 in this matchup over Wise. Each of the two rivals had claimed the other was always stealing his ideas. Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023. Birdie percentage: Birdies are king this week. For our complete review, visit Bay Hill's Places to Play page here. As the Florida swing continues, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the third designated event in four weeks. Mayo: Adam Long (-110) over J.J. Spaun (DraftKings) Long hasnt had much juice recently but he is the prototype for a solid result at Mayakoba. https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/category/pga-odds-lines-picks-predictions, PGA Tour odds, lines, picks and predictions, NFL Fantasy Football Rankings, Sleepers and Analysis, Jeff Overton odds, tips and betting trends for the Puerto Rico Open, Ludvig Aberg odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Roberto Diaz odds, tips and betting trends for the Puerto Rico Open, Eric Axley odds, tips and betting trends for the Puerto Rico Open, Seonghyeon Kim odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Will Zalatoris odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Justin Thomas odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Min Woo Lee odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Ben Taylor odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Ryan Palmer odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Aaron Rai odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Eric Cole odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, J.J. Spaun odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Aaron Wise odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Thriston Lawrence odds, tips and betting trends for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Phoenix Suns at Chicago Bulls odds, picks and predictions, Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions, New York Knicks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions, Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings odds, picks and predictions, Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics odds, picks and predictions, New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions, Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks odds, picks and predictions, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The ball striking? Betting Preview for the Euro Tour: A quick hitter article for some Euro Tour action provided by both Ben Rasa and Jason Rouslin. Lee +6500Rickie Fowler +6500Jason Day +8000Wyndham Clark +8000Joel Dahmen +8000Harris English +8000Chris Kirk +8000Taylor Pendrith +8500Justin Rose +8500Patrick Rodgers +9500Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9500Davis Riley +9500Thomas Detry +9500Denny McCarthy +9500Keith Mitchell +10000Will Gordon +10000David Lipsky +10000Sebastian Munoz +11000Brendan Steele +11000Martin Laird +12000Brendon Todd +12000Luke List +12000Dean Burmester +12000Emiliano Grillo +12000Ben Griffin +12000Stephan Jaeger +12000Alex Smalley +12000Aaron Rai +14000Russell Knox +14000Lee Hodges +14000Jhonattan Vegas +16000Nick Taylor +16000Greyson Sigg +16000Taylor Moore +16000Patton Kizzire +16000Sam Ryder +16000Mark Hubbard +16000Danny Willett +16000Nate Lashley +16000Robby Shelton +17000S.H. While Im happy for him, Im not buying it just yet. Shriners: Sungjae Im. Hes gained 10-plus strokes to the field five times during that run, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Im not really understanding why Henleys priced up here just below the elites. CJ Cup: Sungjae Im. Hes also likely to lose a lot of strokes puttinglike he did at Riviera (losing seven strokes/putting), making it 17 straight events losing with that club. Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Russell Knox (+750, DraftKings) Knox comes into this event ranked 18th in the FanShareSports Course Suitability Ranking this week so its not surprising to see that he already has three top-10 finishes to his name here at El Camaleon. Finishing T-50 in Phoenix and T-45 in Los Angeles are certainly not bad results, but they will look bad compared to the high standards that Kim has provided us in his first nine months on tour. SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. Alex Noren ($9,500 DraftKings | $11,200 FanDuel). Toss in four par 5s and scoring conditions during which par will feel like a red number, and it wont matter much that his putting unlikely will impress. Harris English ($8,400 DraftKings | $10,300 FanDuel). Chris Kirk ($9,900 DraftKings | $11,400 FanDuel). Sepp Straka (T-35, T-30, T-3), Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc. This week, the PGA Tour is in Detroit for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club, a track designed by Donald Ross. MLB Power Rankings + Sports Betting Model, 2022 Best Ball Rankings/Projections for Underdog, DraftKings, FFPC and Yahoo. Corey Conners ($7,800 DraftKings | $9,500 FanDuel). Even at 38 years of age, hes consistently among the longest hitters off the tee, and because of that, hes among the most accurate on approach. Schauffele (19-1), Zalatoris (19-1) and Tom Kim (20-1) also are top choices, while Si Woo Kim is priced at 29-1 at Caesars. Min Woo Lee hasnt played an official PGA Tour event since the Open Championship (T-21) but has been crushing the DP World Tour as of late. Hes been competitive in the toughest fields of the year and will now get to battle a much weaker composition of his peers. He shot better than 71 once in the six rounds. Recent Form Cheatsheet: The entire fields current form, going back as far as 10 weeks, and synopsis provided by Jason Rousiln. The 2023 Genesis Invitational. 7:52 am ET, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald, You can head to SportsLine now to see all of McDonald's PGA picks and analysis, You can see who he is backing this week at The American Express 2023 at SportsLine, You can find out who it is, and see the rest of McDonald's American Express picks, predictions, and best bets at SportsLine, visit SportsLine to see Patrick McDonald's top prop picks for The American Express 2023, all from the expert who is up almost $700 on his PGA Tour picks this season, See full The American Express 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here, Spieth among many chasing at Arnold Palmer Invitational, Tiger Woods opts to not play Players Championship, WATCH: Viktor Hovland drains ace at Arnold Palmer, How to watch 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, Report: Pebble Beach will be designated event in 2024, Rahm leads (again) at Bay Hill after Round 1, 2023 American Express odds, field, expert picks, bets, Spieth among chasers at Arnold Palmer Invitational, Tiger Woods opts to skip 2023 Players Championship, Report: PGA Tour to reduce fields of designated events, Kirk breaks 8-year drought with emotional Honda win. TPC Louisiana | Par 72 | 7,425 yards | Pete Dye design, TPC Louisiana in Avondale, Louisiana. Aaron Rai ($7,700 DraftKings | $9,500 FanDuel). Rounds 1 and 3: Best ball Its that kind of formula that yielded his breakthrough victory at Torrey Pines of all places. Jordan Spieth ($8,600 DraftKings | $10,100 FanDuel). Here are the stats you should be paying attention to, From Golf Digest Architecture Editor emeritus Ron Whitten: RELATED:LIV Golf loses ratings battle to Worlds Funniest Animals? We run 1000s simulations for every PGA Tour event to predict the most likely outcomes and find value against the sportsbooks. 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Picks: Rickie Fowler Time! Palmer was able to grab World No. Anyone who backs one of his 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational sleepers could hit it big. Per stats guru Justin Ray, only two other players have pulled off the rare accomplishment in the past 40 years on tour. World No. Anyone who follows McDonald's advice has been cashing in. GOLF DIGEST MAY EARN A PORTION OF SALES FROM PRODUCTS THAT ARE PURCHASED THROUGH OUR SITE AS PART OF OUR AFFILIATE PARTNERSHIPS WITH RETAILERS. Gehman: Brendon Todd (+500, Bet365) Todd has found magic with his irons twice already during this season. See the full Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here. Since his emergence on the scene last summer, there is no golfer in this field gaining as many strokes on approach (0.75 per round) in as many rounds (67) as Kim. He was finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Bay Hill will challenge golfers from tee to green and demand precision on and around the greens. Before this week's PGA Tour event, McDonald has locked in his best bets for the 2023 The American Express. One surprising pick from McDonald this week: The expert is strongly fading Schauffele, who could struggle even if he is healthy. Hes top 10 in driving accuracy over the past year, according to datagolf, and hes second in SG/approach in that span, as well. One of the most accurate players in the field and always seems to make the putts he should. He tied for 25th in 2022, and he has been a different player since then. Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Collin Morikawa (16-1, FanDuel) El Camaleon should suit Morikawa very well. Kramer Hickok ($6,900 DraftKings | $8,300 FanDuel). The uncommon paspalum greens could level the playing field for him as a putter, and that could boost him up big time. Day, a 12-time PGA Tour winner, has three straight top-10 finishes and has yet to finish worse than 18th place in 2023. Hes played this event once, finishing T-17 last year while losing 5.24 strokes in the short game. And which sleepers could set you up for a potentially huge payday? Caves Valley Golf Club, 2. Hes combining solid approach play with a hot putter to throw his name into the mix more consistently. Those who can avoid disaster and grind their way through 72 holes will give themselves a chance to hoist the trophy on Sunday night. The only thing worrisome about this play is he hasnt truly contended on the PGA Tour yet, even last week after he grabbed a share of the first round lead. It wont be all fun and games this week because PGA National is one of the toughest tests in all of golf. Responsible sports betting starts with a game plan. See full The American Express 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here. If he can just make a few putts, which is conceivable on the slow, paspalum greens, his irons and accuracy should have him hoisting a novelty check. Take me to the Rocket League category page! With that in mind, here are our 13 best bets ( odds via DraftKings) to hoist that gold trophy. His last two starts have resulted in a T-11 and T-8, so clearly something is brewing for Day right now. McNealys longer than he is accurate, and the irons arent particularly great. Mayo: Emiliano Grillo (+270, DraftKings) The CJ Cup wasnt kind to Grillo, but now hes back at a happy place. How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Spaun +19000Harris English +19000Byeong Hun An +20000Justin Suh +21000Patrick Rodgers +21000Taylor Pendrith +21000Joel Dahmen +21000Sam Ryder +21000Taylor Moore +22000Emiliano Grillo +22000Kurt Kitayama +22000Joseph Bramlett +23000Danny Willett +23000Ben Griffin +24000Garrick Higgo +24000Francesco Molinari +25000. Here are the stats you should be paying attention to. I was excited to see Englishs T-12 last week at Riviera until I saw the 8.8 strokes he gained puttingthe best putting performance of his career, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Xander Schauffele Betting Odds Remain for Tournament of Champions Despite WD Reports. Despite the struggles, hes not that far off. Course Fit ( compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes such as driving distance to predict who performs well at each course DataGolf): 1. The PGA Tour begins the Florida swing this week with the Honda Classic, which will once again play at PGA National (par 70, 7,125 yards, The PGA Tour continues this week with the first stop on the Florida swing and the Honda Classic. Showdown Spotlight Articles: Released after the conclusion of play each day, this article is to give some ideas for Showdown contests, and updates to the daily action in case one missed it. How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in . Justin Thomas ($9,600 DraftKings | $11,300 FanDuel). After debuting with a T17 in 2017, he piggybacked it with a T7 in 2018 and a T10 in 2019. His form is great, ranking second in the field for SG/total over the last two years and 11th for SG/total over the last two months. 2 Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm among the top names. Gambling problem? managing editor: Tony Finau (18-1, BetMGM) Nobody has been better over the past 24 rounds than Finau, whos third in SG/approach, sixth in SG/off the tee and 12th in putting. Jon Rahm ($11,500 DraftKings | $12,200 FanDuel). But hes certainly gaining on it, with three top-25 finishes in his last seven starts on tour. Hes played well at Bay Hill the last two years, but he was in much better lead-in form. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of McClure's 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop picks, sleepers, head-to-head matchups, best bets, and his top one and done pick. As Joel Beall of Golf Digest noted, the video compilation show Worlds Funniest Animals also aired on Saturday drew more viewers than LIV Golf did. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Instead, the golfing world is heading to Vidanta Vallarta for the first time to play the Mexico Open this week. Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Tony Finau (18-1, BetMGM) Finau has yet to make his 2023 season debut, but dont allow yourself to forget how he finished last season. THE MATERIAL ON THIS SITE MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED, TRANSMITTED, CACHED OR OTHERWISE USED, EXCEPT WITH THE PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION OF DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. 2023 DISCOVERY GOLF, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, Honda Classic DFS picks 2023: Play this breakout star at PGA National, Max Homa, fighting back tears, says he will win again at Riviera, LIV Golf announces teams, players for 2023; Four PGA Tour players, Pieters officially join league, These are the questions you should be asking yourself before buying new clubs, Brian Urlacher on his proud moment in the WMPO pro-am, an unlikely eagle at Augusta National and making his first ace on a par 4 (! Hovland on the other hand comes into this event looking to complete the hat trick of wins here in the space of three years. With a pair of early top 10s among six paydays, the 41-year-old Aussie is an impressive 75th in the FedExCup. (Photo: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports). Kapalua Plantation Course 4. 2023 Honda Classic Odds & Trends: Shane Lowry & Sunjae Im Lead the Pack. Confidence is high for Ryder, who is playing the best golf of his life right now. I think theyre all viable plays, but the rest of the field is justifiably a tier behind them. From tee-to-green hes elite and now hes making massive gains with his putter. His last four starts, not including the staggered-start Tour Championship, resulted in two wins and a T-5. Hes now played 12 times this season, making the cut in 10 starts while earning six finishes of T-32 or better. The Honda Classic is the first stop, and although. If youre look for win equity in the 40-1+ range, look no further than J-Day. Matchup Results from the Bermuda Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Rodgers (-125) over S.H. Before you lock in any 2023 American Express picks, be sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from SportsLine golf insider Patrick McDonald. Now he gets to battle a much weaker field, where he should be able to separate himself more frequently. Detry certainly seems to be building toward something big. Stars are everywhere on the leaderboard heading into the weekend at Bay Hill. RELATED: Want to become a better golf bettor? Scheffler has four straight top-10 finishes, including a runner-up at the Hero World Challenge.You can see who he is backing this week at The American Express 2023 at SportsLine. His stat profile is full of inconsistency, and his inaccuracy off-the-tee could lead to big numbers in Florida this week. Lee +19000J.J. Now hell head to Bay Hill with little experience to bank on. He also was among the turnarounds at the Honda a T29, easily his best effort in five starts in 2023. Alldrick, FanShare Sports: Thomas Detry (40-1, DraftKings) Detry will be coming into this event brimming with confidence after his runner-up finish last week. After one of the most memorable California Swings in recent memory, the PGA Tour kicks off its Florida Swing this week at the Honda Classic. 7 and sank one of the most beautiful aces youll ever see. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts! Hes been quiet of late but he still connected for a T11 at PGA West, and we can count on him to find fairways at Bay Hill. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. That will undoubtedly change soon, but Im not ready to bet on it at single-digit odds. While that sounds great, its likely unsustainable. Hes accomplished both on and around the greens, which gives him the highest upside and most well-rounded golfer teeing it up. Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop" (above), where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. Hes played this event once, finishing T-49 in 2015. Zozo: Sungjae Im. RELATED: What to make of LIV Golfs tumultuous inaugural season. The 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando is next up on the PGA Tour schedule, the third designated event in four weeks. Okay, I admit that it reminds me of the sixth at Hazeltine National, another Trent Jones product, but I don't think Wilson picked Trent's pocket on this one, as both courses were built about the same time, in the early 1960s. USE OF AND/OR REGISTRATION ON ANY PORTION OF THIS SITE CONSTITUTES ACCEPTANCE OF OURVISITOR AGREEMENT(UPDATED 1/6/23),PRIVACY AND COOKIES NOTICE(UPDATED 1/4/23) ANDCALIFORNIA PRIVACY NOTICE. 2022 Stokastic.com LLC. He nailed the Houston Open, backing Tony Finau to win at 25-1, and is up almost seven units on his plays overall, a profit of nearly $700 for $100 bettors. Hes proving to be a well-rounded golfer with plenty of room for growth. Hes played four times this yearmissing the cut in Phoenix but earning a runner-up, third place finish and T-6 in his three other starts. Fitzpatrick has been candid about dealing with a neck injury over the course of the past few weeks. His ball-striking is elite on this circuit, but hes not reliant on that aspect of his game. 1 Scottie Scheffler is back in action and back in his rightful spot as the solo favorite. One of McClure's favorite prop bet picks this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 is veteran Jason Day to finish in the top-20 of the final leaderboard at +125 odds (risk $100 to win $125). 2 Scottie Scheffler is back to defend his title while No. The model was also all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Written by Jason Rouslin and released on Sunday evenings. Sports Betting Legality Map Gdula: Maverick McNealy (26-1, FanDuel) I cant suggest fading anyone at 18-1 or shorter. Caddie: Scottie Scheffler (9-1, DraftKings) I do worry about him coming in highly motivated after losing the No. The Korn Ferry trademark is also a registered trademark, and is used in the Korn Ferry Tour logo with permission. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Theyre both inside the top 30 this season in birdie average. Hovland stepped up to the tee at the par-3 No. Sam Ryder ($7,000 DraftKings | $8,300 FanDuel). He tends to thrive when conditions get more difficult, which will be expected at PGA National this week. Scottish Open Picks Jordan Spieth often excels the week before a Major and loves the links. As a U.K.-based expert, Alldricks insight into European Tour regulars and low priced, low owned plays has provided an invaluable edge for readers when it comes to DFS GPPs. Well do the same taking a couple from each article and summing it up for you! Vegas has been impressive since returning to action from offseason shoulder surgery. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Sahith Theegala. USE OF AND/OR REGISTRATION ON ANY PORTION OF THIS SITE CONSTITUTES ACCEPTANCE OF OURVISITOR AGREEMENT(UPDATED 1/6/23),PRIVACY AND COOKIES NOTICE(UPDATED 1/4/23) ANDCALIFORNIA PRIVACY NOTICE. Hes now giving strokes back to the field on the putting surfaces in seven of his past nine measured starts. . For live odds, visit BetMGM. 13 in the , he was comfortably inside the top 10 entering the final round before falling into a five-way tie for Sure, many factors contribute to success and not all performers are defined by them, but the 2023 body of evidence already includes the likes of Eric Cole (P2), Ben Martin (T5) and Carson Young (T29), each of whom with attention-getting performances at PGA National last week. His putter is better than average, but it won't keep him in contention. His usually reliable driver has let him down, and he hasnt been as precise on his second shots. RELATED: Here are the odds for every player in the field this week at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, Rory McIlroy ($10,600 DraftKings | $11,900 FanDuel). Prizepicks + Stokastic Promo Get a Free Month! 13 in the Power Rankings for The Honda Classic, he was comfortably inside the top 10 entering the final round before falling into a five-way tie for 21st with a Sunday 73.
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